Angling for further CBK Rate Cuts...

Howdy! It's Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street. In today's edition, we analyze a report by ABSA research—explaining why the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is likely to continue its rate cuts by the year's end.

Plus: Why retaining retirees in the public service is affecting youth employment in the coastal counties.

Angling for further CBK Rate Cuts

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is on a rate-cutting spree, and Absa Research predicts it’ll land at 9% by year’s end, holding steady for two years—welcome news for borrowers, not so much for savers. Inflation is expected to play nice at 4.5%, while consumer spending remains the economy’s MVP, keeping growth on track at 4.9%. The financial and construction sectors are shaking off the dust, helped by cheaper credit, but net exports remain a stubborn thorn in the side.

Meanwhile, Kenya’s savings rate is stuck below 5%, leaving long-term investment dreams on shaky ground, though foreign cash inflows are providing some cushion. And as La Niña threatens to disrupt agriculture, the shilling is set to hover between KES 130–140 per dollar—stable, but not exactly strong. Here is our analysis of this research»»»»»

Today's Poll

Yesterday's Poll Results 

What are your thoughts on the planned listing of Kenya Pipeline on the Nairobi Securities Exchange?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Excellent News (99%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Bad News (1%)

Counties hoard retirees, youth miss out

Kenya’s coastal counties are holding on to retirees past the legal exit age, with Mombasa leading the pack, despite soaring youth unemployment. The Auditor General’s latest report flags missing paperwork for contract extensions and disability claims, raising accountability concerns. Kilifi and Lamu counties are also caught in the mix, with retirees still on payroll and internships being handed out in a less-than-transparent manner. Lamu even shortchanged interns, paying them less than the stipulated government rates. Meanwhile, over a million young Kenyans enter the job market each year, many without skills, but counties seem to prefer old hands over fresh talent. Why is this happening?

The Khartoum-Nairobi Fallout : An Import Blockade

Sudan has suspended all imports from Kenya in retaliation for Nairobi’s engagement with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The decision follows a February meeting in Kenya where RSF and allied groups signed a political charter, angering Khartoum. Sudan is a key market for Kenyan tea, with exports rising even as trade between the two nations declines. Kenyan officials have yet to respond to the escalating diplomatic fallout but this is only part of the economic repercussions for our fraternization with a regional rebel group»»»»»

More Stories :

• Agriculture. Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has announced the creation of a Common Marketing Development Fund, financed from a new levy designed to promote tea in Kenya and internationally.

• Geopolitics. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) will withdraw its peacekeeping troops from the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• The Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) has announced a KES 10 billion profit before tax for the financial year ending 30th June 2024, ahead of its anticipated listing on the NSE.

On your watchlist