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- As the Middle East Heats Up, Kenya Braces for Impact
As the Middle East Heats Up, Kenya Braces for Impact
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Hello 👋🏽 It's Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street.
Markets are being jolted this week as the Middle East has erupted back into serious conflict, with fresh U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran triggering a wave of geopolitical risk pricing across global markets. What do these events mean for Kenya?
We also review the state of Kenya's debt and the stock market performance in February…
Tea Exports in the Crosshairs of Global Conflicts
A tea plantation in Kenya
By Brian Nzomo
Kenya’s tea exports are under pressure as Middle East conflicts spread across key markets. In November 2025, over 80 percent of exports went to ten countries including Pakistan, Egypt, the UK, Russia, and Gulf hubs like the UAE, Iran, and Oman…many now embroiled in war or political instability. Iran has suspended Kenyan tea imports, while Tehran’s threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks near the Red Sea could raise freight and insurance costs. Pakistan, which absorbs more than 40% of monthly shipments, faces conflict with Afghanistan, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Read the full article here >>>>>
Bracing for Oil Price Volatility
By Fred Obura
The governments of Kenya and Uganda have separately moved to reassure their citizens that supply lines remain intact as the Middle Eastern conflict continues, causing global oil prices to surge. In both Nairobi and Kampala, governments have maintained that there are sufficient petroleum inventories to meet both domestic consumption and regional transit demand.
Continue reading the article here »»»»»
The Strait That Moves the Oil
The Strait of Hormuz
By Dennis Kaboro
At the mouth of the Persian Gulf lies the Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometre corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil squeezes each day including every litre that eventually hisses into a pump in Nairobi. When tensions rise between Iran and its Gulf rivals, the tremor is first felt in tanker insurance premiums and Brent crude futures, and then, finally in matatu fares along Thika Road. The Kenyan government-to-government fuel lifeline with Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company still must pass through that single maritime doorway. A spike in global prices forces Nairobi to hunt for more dollars, nudging the shilling downward and making the same shipment of fuel doubly expensive by the time it docks in Mombasa.
Read the whole analysis here >>>>>
The Rise And Rise of Domestic Debt
Kenya's domestic debt
By Harry Njuguna
Kenya’s domestic debt has pierced KSh 7 trillion, a milestone that signals both audacity and alarm. The last three trillion crept onto the books in just 14 months, as the government leaned on local banks and pension funds while foreign appetite remained tepid. Treasury bonds dominate the ledger, knitting the sovereign tightly to the financial system and crowding private-sector credit in the process. With borrowing targets nearly exhausted and half the fiscal year still ahead, the state faces a stark choice: recalibrate its ambitions or turn once more to external lenders.
Read the full article here >>>>>
How the Stock Market Performed in February
How different stocks performed at the NSE in February
By Harry Njuguna
Banks led from the front in February, hauling the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) to one of its strongest monthly performances in years and adding KSh 327 billion in market value along the way. The NSE Banking Index surged more than 14%, setting the tempo for a broader rally that lifted all major indices into double-digit territory. Foreign investors kept selling, but domestic buyers absorbed the pressure with conviction, turning what could have been a technical bounce into a decisive shift in sentiment.
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Today in History
Saudi Arabia discovered vast oil reserves at Dammam Well No. 7, a discovery that transformed the kingdom into a pivotal force in the global energy market.
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