Is Kenya Pipeline's IPO Overpriced?

The Tussle for Kenya Pipeline’s True Value 

By Harry Njuguna  

Old Mutual Investment Group Uganda has become the latest analyst to challenge Kenya Pipeline Company’s KSh 9.00 IPO price, intensifying a valuation debate that has split independent research houses from the deal’s sponsoring firms.

• In a January 2026 initiation note released after the offer opened, Old Mutual values KPC at KSh 4.61 per share, implying a 49% downside to the IPO price.

• At KSh 9.00, the offer values KPC at KSh 163.56 billion, while Old Mutual’s intrinsic valuation points to an equity value of KSh 77.4 billion.

• The firm recommends entry only after a post-listing correction, arguing that current pricing embeds a premium likely to limit near-term upside.

NCBA Investment Bank placed fair value at about KSh 6.35 per share, arguing the IPO implies a premium earnings multiple for a mature, regulated utility. Standard Investment Bank, in pre-offer valuation work, estimated KPC’s equity value at around KSh 102 billion, implying roughly KSh 5.61 per share on the post-IPO share base. Other independent analyses have produced broader fair-value ranges of KSh 3.28 to KSh 5.41, citing stretched valuation multiples and a dividend yield that struggles to compete with double-digit, tax-free government infrastructure bonds.

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How Avery Lounge Came to Owe the Taxman KSh 92.7mn

By Brian Nzomo

A Nairobi restaurant that declared zero income while running an active hospitality business has lost its bid to overturn KSh 92.7 million in tax assessments, after the High Court ruled that unexplained bank deposits can be treated as income when a taxpayer keeps no proper records.

• A decision delivered by the High Court’s Commercial and Tax Division dismissed Avery Lounge Limited’s appeal and upheld the Kenya Revenue Authority’s (KRA) use of bank deposit analysis to reconstruct the company’s income.

• A field visit in November 2021 had confirmed that the lounge was fully operational and the authority obtained third-party banking records, which found substantial deposits over multiple years. 

• In the absence of credible books of account, it treated those deposits as business income and raised assessments covering corporation tax, VAT, and PAYE.

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MARKETS LAST WEEK

EVs are here, but fuels fund the exchequer 

By Brian Nzomo

Kenya’s growing fleet of electric vehicles is set to unravel one of the government’s most lucrative revenue streams: the Road Maintenance Levy. Already, EV adoption caused a KSh 2 billion shortfall in 2025, a figure projected to explode as electric vehicles become mainstream. The shift highlights a looming dilemma: fuel taxes have long funded roads, but cleaner mobility threatens the model, with no clear alternative revenues in sight. Policymakers may soon face the developed world to determine what and how future EV owners will pay into the nation’s infrastructure wallet.

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Upcoming Events : InvestKenya Announces the Upcoming Kenya International Investment Conference (KIICO) 2026

Taking place at the Radisson Blu Upper Hill on March 25, 2026, the 4th Kenya International Investment Conference (KIICO) 2026 is set to be the largest and most impactful investment promotion conference in Kenya’s history. Register here »»»»»

During KIICO 2026, Kenya will also host the 2nd COMESA Investment Forum on March 26 and the Africa Green Industrialization Initiative (AGII) on March 27th.

Read more about it here »»»»»

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