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Making Inflation figures more accurate
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Good evening. It’s Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street.
These are our top financial stories today…
Making Inflation figures more accurate…
By Fred Obura
The IMF has spent the past stretch of months helping the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) rebuild the model it uses to forecast inflation and set interest rates, and the verdict was that the data feeding it is still not good enough. Entire categories of information central banks normally take for granted including detailed quarterly GDP breakdowns, wage data, long historical series on inflation expectations. These are either missing in Kenya, revised so heavily they become unreliable, or published so late they are stale by the time anyone can use them. The rebuilt model now separates core, food, and energy inflation, accounting for fiscal policy more realistically, and for the first time folds in a climate component that tracks how weather shocks ripple into food prices. The IMF will return within the year to check on progress, a reminder that Kenya's monetary policy is only ever as precise as the data it is built on, and right now that data is still catching up to the ambition of the framework meant to interpret it.
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Heads Up
How Overseas Earnings Are Reshaping Home Ownership
By Fred Obura
When seven in ten households receiving money from relatives abroad already own at least one extra house, and more than a fifth own three or four, the remittance economy appears like a decentralized national housing program. The houses themselves tell a story about where that money is actually going: rural families overwhelmingly choose bungalows, more so among women running their own households than men, a detail that suggests overseas earnings are doing more than building wealth. They are letting women convert income into permanent, visible ownership in places where land and houses have rarely belonged to them. In cities the calculus flips entirely as flats dominate. What the survey ultimately documents is a parallel system of national development, built one diaspora wire transfer at a time.
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OPINION : Africa’s Next Great Wealth Challenge Is Preserving It
By Marjorie Kivuva
In Kenya alone, over 13,000 succession cases are currently tied up in court, locking up roughly KSh500 billion in assets that could otherwise be funding businesses, jobs, and investment. The pattern behind these disputes is depressingly familiar: a founder spends decades building something real, then leaves behind no will, no trust, and no honest conversation with the people who will eventually fight over what's left. With Kenya being home to over 7,000 dollar millionaires and most of that wealth still in first-generation, the continent is about to find out whether its newest fortunes were built to last past the people who built them.
Read the full article here >>>>>
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