No Reprieve for NCBA

Hi 👋🏽 It's Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street.

In today's newsletter, one of the big boys in the banking industry is struggling to unclench itself from a regulatory mishap it made years ago. Meanwhile, Turkana is gearing up for a new oil drilling promise and a Tanzanian cement tycoon is aggressively seeking control in one of Kenya’s oldest firms.

No Reprieve for NCBA

By Harry Njuguna

The High Court has nudged NCBA back toward the taxman, clearing KRA to chase the long-contested stamp duty tied to the 2019 NIC–CBA merger. What the bank hoped would be a pause became a reminder that once a court calls something unconstitutional, it refuses to wait politely for an appeal. The ruling hands activist Okiya Omtatah another victory in a saga that has stretched across administrations and corporate restructurings. NCBA insisted that the payout could rattle its balance sheet, but the court brushed off those anxieties as speculative. For now, the message is simple: the appeal may proceed, but the bill comes first.

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Ambition without Power

By Fred Obura

The Kenyan electricity system is straining under the weight of stalled reforms, with demand now brushing against generation capacity and leaving the country without a safety margin. The World Bank’s new assessment is blunt: competitive auctions for renewable power never began, legacy contracts remain untouched, and open-access rules exist mostly on paper. The result is a grid that must ration power at dusk, even as officials insist the country is a clean-energy leader. President Ruto, now openly acknowledging load-shedding, says Kenya needs something closer to Ethiopia-scale ambition, not another round of policies waiting to be “operationalized.” Meanwhile, lawmakers want to tuck nearly KSh 30 billion of rural electrification debt into household bills because when reforms stall, someone must still pay.

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The Revival of the Oil Dream 

By Brian Nzomo

Kenya has finally signed off on the South Lokichar Field Development Plan, handing the long-stalled project to its new operator, Gulf Energy E&P. The approval follows Tullow’s quiet exit and a reshuffling of ownership that leaves Gulf holding the pen and the risk of a US$6.1 billion blueprint. The timeline remains characteristically hopeful, promising first oil by late 2026 and full production years after the optimism has faded. For now, the plan signals intent more than inevitability, a reminder that Kenya’s oil story has always lived somewhere between geology and faith.

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 Happening this week 

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Capital Markets 

🔶 The Battle for East African Portland

Kalahari Cement has returned with a second bid, this time for NSSF’s 27 percent stake in East African Portland Cement, a move that would tip the company and its Tanzanian backer, Ebrahim Munif into outright control. The offer follows its recent purchase of Holcim’s shares, a rapid consolidation that has turned EAPC’s ownership board into something resembling a family portrait. Should the deal clear, Munif-linked firms would command nearly 70 percent of the company, formalizing a dominance that could jolt the market.

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