Pain at the Pump

Hello 👋🏽 It's Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street.

Stakeholders in the transport and logistics sector have not wasted time in hiking fares and freight rates after EPRA announced steep rises in fuel yesterday night. The tensions in the middle east, followed by supply disruptions in crude oil, will now be painfully apparent on the pylon signs of your nearest petrol station…and the broader economy…

This and more in today's edition…

Pain at the Pump

By Harry Njuguna

Fuel prices in Kenya have jumped sharply, with diesel now above KSh 206 per litre, the highest in history, and super petrol rising to nearly the same level, making everyday travel and business operations significantly more expensive. The increase comes after a surge in global oil prices linked to supply disruptions in the Middle East, along with a weaker shilling that raises the cost of importing fuel. Transport operators are expected to pass the higher diesel costs to consumers, which will push up the price of food and basic goods in markets across the country. Even kerosene, widely used by low-income households for cooking and lighting, remains heavily subsidized, masking a real cost that would otherwise be far higher and unaffordable for many families. The result is a broad rise in the cost of living, with fuel acting as the main pressure point feeding inflation across the economy.

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More on Oil 

‘Even Securitized Tax Flows Are Debt,’  — IMF Tells Treasury

By Harry Njuguna

The IMF has raised a serious challenge to Kenya’s debt story, saying that KSh 335 billion raised through future tax pledges should be counted as public debt, not kept off the balance sheet as a separate financing trick. These are not abstract numbers: they are real taxes on fuel, roads, railways, and airport passengers that have already been promised away, meaning future government revenue is being spent today. If the IMF position is adopted, Kenya’s debt stock would look heavier at a time when it is already close to 70% of GDP, tightening pressure on fiscal policy and borrowing plans. Treasury insists these arrangements are not traditional debt because the money flows through special vehicles, but the Bretton Woods Institution argues the risk still sits with the state, no matter how it is labelled. 

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More on Public Finance 

The Ndindi Nyoro Effect

By Harry Njuguna 

Kenya Airways’ share price has surged more than 130% this year, driven less by its weak financial results and more by a wave of retail buying triggered after a regulatory filing showed MP Ndindi Nyoro had built a large position in the stock. The rally has come even as the airline reported a KSh 17.2 billion loss, negative equity of KSh 132.1 billion, and continues to rely on uncertain restructuring talks with a potential strategic investor. Trading volumes have exploded as small investors pile in, betting that a major turnaround deal will eventually materialize, especially after years of state support and recent regulatory changes pushing the airline toward private capital. But unlike past success stories such as Kenya Power, Kenya Airways has no profits, no firm deal, and no government backstop left, making the rally a pure test of sentiment over fundamentals.

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