What's Inside

• Was Ruto’s US Trip Worth It?

• Luncheon; Mitigating Climate Risks; The Role of African Financial Institutions

• South Africa Goes to the Polls

• Don't forget to attend these events...

  • Headlines you might have missed

• Interview of the Week

A MESSAGE FROM THE THE KENYAN WALL STREET EVENTS TEAM;

On the sidelines of the African Development Bank Group (AFDB) Annual Meetings in Nairobi this week, The Kenyan Wall Street is hosting an exclusive luncheon: Mitigating Climate Risks; The Role of African Financial Institutions

🗓️ Date: Tuesday, 28th May 2024

This invite-only event will feature leaders from the African financial services sector. Our keynote speaker will be renowned global banker Hisham Ezz Al-Arab, Chairman of CIB Group, Egypt’s largest private-sector bank. Joining him will be Wayne Hennessy-Barrett, Founder and CEO of 4G Capital Group, and Frank Mwiti, CEO of the Nairobi Securities Exchange, who will share insights on climate and sustainability efforts in the financial sector.

👉 Request invite: https://lu.ma/gpa7fsnx

Was Ruto’s US Trip Worth It?

Last week, President Ruto made a state visit to the United States where and his US counterpart Joe Biden announced a raft of deals ranging from trade, support, infrastructure, to security.

• The raft of deals will see the US government and its institutions invest millions of dollars into different sectors, including startups and government institutions.

• The two countries have been discussing a trade deal that is set to be signed by the end of 2024.

• Among other deals signed on the sidelines of the state visit include $175mn investment by Coca Cola, $1bn investment by Microsoft, and continued investments from the US government’s investment arm, and a $3.6bn agreement to build the Nairobi-Mombasa Expressway.

The deals are a mix of new and existing programs, and together show that the Biden administration is pivoting on Ruto as its key geopolitical ally on this side of the world. With South Africa driving the case against Israel at the ICC, and Uganda largely blacklisted due to its vicious anti-homosexuality law, Nairobi’s prominence in Washington’s strategy on the continent has grown.

President Biden’s choice of Ruto as the first African head of state to make a state visit in more than a decade and a half is strategic for both of them, but many risks lie ahead. Biden is up for reelection in November, with a recent poll by Emerson College showing former President Trump still leading, although Biden’s fortunes have improved.

A Trump second term could reset the matrix yet again, which makes it the most significant point in gauging the likely long-term success of Ruto’s trip. Some of the deals will either not be complete or even initiated by the November polls, and if Trump wins and reestablishes his previous geopolitical and foreign policies, then a lot of the deals could go with the wind, or be whittled down.

• Some may not change, such as the Nairobi-Mombasa Expressway deal that is being funded by Everstrong Capital.

• Among the infrastructure asset manager’s partners is Kyle McCarter, Trump’s former ambassador to Kenya.

• The deal is also a public-private partnership, which provides a measure of distance between its execution and who occupies the White House from January 2025.

Biden could get reelected, which would mean that both he and Ruto would have at least three more years to build a closer relationship between Nairobi and Washington. This would be good for Ruto’s geopolitical play at becoming the US’ closest ally in the region, but it could also be a complicated relationship due to Washington’s increased scrutiny on Kenya’s many issues, including high-level corruption.

It also means that both survive in office to see the Haiti mission, which Kenya is leading and the US is funding, either succeed or fail. Kenya has contributed forces to peacekeeping missions outside its borders for decades, but the Haiti mission is a different, offensive deployment altogether. Its success would see political order restored to Haiti and provide multiple benefits to Kenya’s diplomatic stock, but its failure could create political problems for President Ruto at home and beyond.

South Africa Goes to the Polls

On Wednesday May 29th, 28 million South Africans will go to the polls in what is set to be a pivotal election for Africa’s largest economy.

• Many polls have shown that it is likely that it may mark the first time the ruling ANC will lose its majority, although a significant proportion are still undecided.

• This would mean it would be forced to get into a coalition with other parties to form the next government, a first that would reshape South African politics. 

• President Cyril Ramaphosa is still a favourite for the presidency, but the entry of former President Jacob Zuma has changed how Ramaphosa’s second term could look like. 

Although he was barred from running due to a previous conviction, Zuma is still widely popular and his new party Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) is likely to split the vote from the ANC’s particularly in Zuma’s home province. MK looks set to win enough seats not only to worsen the ANC’s prospects, but to also lower Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF’s) showing at the polls, since all three parties are largely competing for the same voters.

The ANC’s expected poor showing is driven by voter disenfranchisement with the party of Nelson Mandela, under whose watch economic inequality has grown, further worsened by dilapidated infrastructure, rampant unemployment, and extreme levels of violence.

Don't forget to attend these events...

Headlines you might have missed

• International arrivals in Kenya grew by 35.4% in 2023, although they are still below a set target of 2.5million.

• KCB Group’s Q1 profits grew by 69% although its still facing a massive bad loans book, which grew by 53.4%.

• Real estate developer Acorn Holdings has signed a KShs. 23.6bn financing deal with the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to develop 35 new student housing units.

Interview of the Week

What is AZA-Finance, with Fatimah Gana-Mahmoud.

Have a great week!