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Can the DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal Hold this time?

Over the weekend, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a peace deal in Washington, in the latest effort to end the long-running proxy conflict between the two neighbours.

• The peace deal, signed under the watchful eye of US secretary of state Marco Rubio, affirms major points of a previous deal and adds the formation of a ‘regional economic integration framework.’

• It will see Rwanda withdraw its troops from the DRC within three months, although Kigali has consistently denied their presence there.

• Before the signing, US President Donald Trump disclosed that the US will be getting “a lot of mineral rights from the Congo” as part of the deal.

Kinshasa and Kigali have long accused each other of supporting rebel forces in the region. Kinshasa has repeatedly blamed Rwanda for having a military presence in the eastern DRC, and supporting the M23 rebels whose recent wins have seen them control large swathes of the region.

In turn, Rwanda accuses the DRC of supporting the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an armed group formed by Hutu militias who fled Rwanda after the 1994 genocide and subsequent conflicts.

Previous attempts to form a lasting peace between the two nations have mostly failed, and each has recently courted Washington’s favour in different ways. The DRC has staked its vast mineral wealth, a primary motivation for the conflicts and multiple armed groups present in the country. On the other hand, Rwanda has offered to host illegal immigrants deported by the US, an offer seemingly inspired by a similar deal it signed with the United Kingdom.

Although Trump said that there are ‘big penalties if they violate’ the peace deal, a copy of the agreement seen by The Kenyan Wall Street includes mostly commitments but not sufficient details on how they will implement crucial parts of it. A good example is the disarmament of non-state armed groups such as M23, whose territorial control now gives them significant leverage.

For regional watchers, the combination of diplomatic/security/political goals and economic ones will be particularly interesting. Incursions by DRC’s neighbors, and its own internal conflicts, have often been accompanied by illegal mining and looting. There’s also the fact that the US is not the only global power interested in the minerals, which means the details of the exclusive deal will have global-level consequences.

Stay updated on this and other important news on The Kenyan Wall Street.

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