The lost decade

Kenya's #1 newsletter among business leaders & policy makers

January 27, 2025

loHappy New Week!

It's Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street.

In today's edition of ‘The Daily Brief’, we examine how Kenya’s macroeconomic position will look like until 2028.

The Communications Authority of Kenya has released data for developments in the sector between July and September last year.

This and more in today's edition…

ECONOMY

The ‘Lost’ Decade

Nairobi City

Kenya is experiencing a “lost decade” in public expenditure that may last until 2028 due to large fiscal deficits, weak export performance, and sluggish investment growth.

Kenya is at an impasse economically – faced with three, almost unachievable goals. Lowering expenditure, broadening the tax base, and repaying public debt. According to the Institute of Public Finance (IPF), various developments this year will determine if the projected economic growth will be attained. These include : fiscal transfers to counties, revenue reforms, implementation of social health insurance fund (SHIF), fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. One thing remains certain for economists. If Kenya intends to surmount looming shocks, external debt needs to be minimized. In this article, Fred Obura expounds on the fiscal issues that linger.

Today's Poll

Do you think the current regime is capable of minimizing external debt this year?

Last Friday’s Poll Results

What are your expectations of President Donald Trump's policies for the global economy?

A majority voted ‘Good’

COMPANIES

Java House up for sale…

Java Coffee House

Kenyan coffee chain Java House is up for sale by London-based Actis to Alterra Capital and Phatisa Group marking its fourth sale in 12 years.

Alterra acquire a majority shareholding while Phatisa will assume a minority shareholding with control rights in the acquisition, according to a notice by the COMESA Competition Commission. Java House Group has 73 branches in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda, adding Planet Yogurt in Kenya, Sixty Degrees Pizza in Kenya and Rwanda, Kukito in Kenya and Foodscape Africa.

⏱️ Also Read

CIB Kenya Appoints Abhinav Nehra as New CEO and Managing Director

CIB Kenya has announced the appointment of Abhinav Nehra as its new Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director. Among his notable achievements, Nehra managed and restructured Ecobank Transnational’s retail […]

kenyanwallstreet.com/cib-kenya-appoints-abhinav-nehra-as-new-ceo-and-managing-director

TECH

5G Network : Slow but steady

5G sim card

The number of 5G internet subscriptions grew from 739,020 in the fourth quarter 2023/2024 to 926,382 in the first quarter 2024/2025, a 25% surge, according to the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA).

The Kenyan tech scene is slowly changing as high-speed internet becomes more crucial. Working remotely, shopping online, attending online classes, streaming music and movies…telcos have a great task ahead. Since 2022, they have invested heavily in 5G infrastructure to satisfy the growing demand. But where does this leave traditional models of communication and entertainment? Broadcasting services like Digital Terrestrial Television, Direct-to-Home Television and Cable Networks, are feeling the heat as subscribers to their services drip away slowly. For instance, Multichoice products have reported depreciating revenues over the years as streaming platforms assume dominance. As the internet becomes more reliable and cheaper, the results are predictably skewed towards the death of broadcasting services.

The Fintech Alliance: Unity of Purpose

The signing of the Fintech Alliance

Five major representative associations in the fintech sector have formed an umbrella body called The Fintech Alliance (TFA) to drive “the growth and development of the industry.”

The five member associations include Association of Fintechs in Kenya (AFIK), Fintech Association of Kenya (FINTAK), Digital Financial Services Association of Kenya (DFSAK), Digital Credit Providers Association (DCPAK) and Blockchain Association of Kenya (BAK). The alliance will focus on lobbying for policy and regulatory reforms, supporting access to capital, enhancing innovation, and catalysing economic and social growth.

🗞️More from the News Desk

Nairobi County Revises Budget by Kshs 905m, Allocates Kshs 1.3bn to Pending Bills

Nairobi City County has revised its budget upwards with the supplementary budget pushing the figure to Ksh 44.7 billion.

kenyanwallstreet.com/nairobi-county-revises-budget-by-kshs-905m-allocates-kshs-1-3bn-to-pending-bills

Court Upholds Dismissal of KRA Employee For Abetting Kshs. 118.8mn Tax Evasion

The High Court has thrown out a case against the KRA by an employee who sued after being fired unfair over a multimillion tax evasion scheme.

kenyanwallstreet.com/court-upholds-dismissal-of-kra-employee-for-kshs-118-8mn-tax-evasion

Starlink Subscribers in Kenya Double in Latest Data

Starlink now has over 16,700 subscribers, according to the data for July to September 2024 from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA).

kenyanwallstreet.com/starlink-subscribers-in-kenya-double-in-latest-data

Raenest Returns as Headline Partner for Africa Tech Summit Nairobi 2025, Championing Global Growth for African Tech

The Africa Tech Summit Nairobi is delighted to announce that Raenest, a pioneering Nigerian fintech, has returned as the headline sponsor for the second consecutive year, reaffirming its commitment to fostering growth, and collaboration across the African tech ecosystem.

kenyanwallstreet.com/raenest-returns-as-headline-partner-for-africa-tech-summit-nairobi-2025-championing-global-growth-for-african-tech

Video of the Day

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“Large fiscal deficits, elevated debt levels, revenue shortfalls and the need to avoid further borrowing will result to a continuous decline in per capita public spending (excluding interest) in real terms, for several years”