The Private Sector : Between the Lines of Decline

I am Brian from The Kenyan Wall Street…

In today's newsletter edition, the private sector is still under strain but optimism holds as employment surges. Meanwhile, the stock market is performing exceptionally well, hitting decade highs. These and more here 👇🏽

The Private Sector : Between the Lines of Decline

Hiring picks up even as weak demand and fragile spending keep the private sector in decline.

By Fred Obura

Kenya’s private sector is still shrinking, but the pace of contraction has eased. The latest PMI report shows that activity crept upward from July’s low, signaling that while business activity remains under strain, firms are not retreating as sharply as before.

Curiously, hiring is picking up even as new orders continue to slide. Employment has now expanded for seven straight months, the fastest in over a year, suggesting that companies are preparing for a recovery that has yet to fully materialize.

Consumers, however, remain cautious as weak purchasing power, rising food prices, and political jitters have left households pulling back on spending, forcing businesses to tread lightly on pricing even as their input costs climb.

Manufacturers, more than most, appear to be betting that demand will rebound, keeping an eye on the next 12 months rather than today’s squeeze. Read more here >>>>>

Your Opinion 

The Stock Market Finds Its Pulse Again

By Harry Njuguna

For the first time in years, the Nairobi bourse feels alive. Charts are pointing sharply upward, market chatter is back, and brokers are dusting off phrases they haven’t used since the last big run. Foreign money, once skeptical and scarce, is beginning to trickle in with a confidence that feels almost nostalgic. Some stocks are behaving like rockets, others like anchors, but together they’ve given the index a glow it hasn’t worn since the early 2010s. Skeptics whisper about bubbles, while optimists call it long-overdue correction. What’s undeniable is the mood shift: a market that had slouched into irrelevance is suddenly demanding attention again. Read more here >>>>>

More on Capital Markets

• Bonds. Investors largely shunned Kenya’s 30-year savings bond, with bids coming in at less than half the target and only a fraction accepted. The pullback hints at a market newly wary of locking up money for decades, even as government borrowing needs swell.

• Appointments. Liberty Holdings and Total Energies have announced leadership changes at the top of their boards, ushering in new chairpersons effective September 2025.

“Pay what you owe, ASAP!” - Controller of Budget 

By Brian Nzomo

The Kenyan government has a habit of buying on credit and then pretending the bill slipped under the table. So far, unpaid obligations have climbed past the half-trillion mark, clogging the arteries of small contractors and suppliers who depend on timely payment to stay afloat. Ministries insist they are trimming their arrears, yet state corporations quietly pile on more, often failing to remit even the deductions they’ve taken from their own employees. A committee says nearly half the claims are fake, but that is cold comfort to the businesses gasping for liquidity. Each delay feeds a vicious cycle: stalled projects, shuttered firms, and rising mistrust that the government will ever settle its tab. Read more here »»»»»

Afreximbank Profits Up 1.2% in H1

By Chelsy Maina

Afreximbank’s books showed resilience with modest profit rise, heavy with liquidity gains and recoveries, underscoring a balance sheet built to weather sovereign repayments and geopolitical storms.

Financial snapshot:

🟢 Net profit edged up 1.2% to US$ 412.7 million.

🟢 Total assets expanded 21% to US$ 37.7 billion.

🟢 Net loans fell to US$ 27.7 billion from US$ 29.0 billion.

🔴 Operating expenses rose 21% to US$ 184.2 million.

🟢 Shareholders’ funds climbed to US$ 7.3 billion.

Read full financial analysis here »»»»»

More on the Continental Focus…

• Resources. Africa still ships out its cocoa, gold, and cashews raw, forfeiting billions each year to factories and refiners abroad. At a London finance summit, bankers and politicians pressed the familiar case for value addition, this time casting it as not just an economic imperative but a geopolitical one.

• Ethiopia. Mamo Mihretu has stepped down as Governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), ending a 32-month tenure that redefined the country’s monetary policy and financial regulation.

NSE Gainers & Losers 

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Also Read…

Stories you missed 

♦️ Taxation. The High Court has overturned a tax tribunal decision against Pesapal Limited, ruling that commissions from processing transactions are exempt from VAT.

♦️ Industry. Kenya’s vehicle assembly sector has recovered from two years of declining half-year output, with 6,723 units assembled in the first half of 2025

♦️Real Estate. Buying land in Kenya is one of the biggest investments that can quickly turn into a very risky endeavor when done without due diligence.

♦️ Telcos. Satellite connectivity firm, Paratus Group, has launched Namibia’s first private nationwide mobile network, entering a sector long dominated by state-owned operators.

On your watchlist

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